UFC on FOX 27 Odds: Souza vs. Brunson 2 Prediction

The next UFC event — UFC on Fox 27 — goes down this Saturday (Jan. 27th) and comes with a main-event tip between Ronaldo”Jacare” Souza and Derek Brunson. This is actually the second time both of these middleweights will face off, with Souza winning via knockout in their first go around in 2012. However, time is a funny thing, and six years later, it’s Brunson riding the wave of momentum while Souza regroups after a catastrophic loss that cost him a shot in the UFC middleweight title.
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While this isn’t the tastiest primary class the UFC has ever served, it’s a captivating contrast in styles, and every MMA event, whatever the hype, creates potential gambling opportunities. Where is the smart money going for Souza vs Brunson 2?
Stay tuned for a more comprehensive look at the card in Best Bets for UFC on Fox 27 this Thursday.
Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza (-160) vs. Derek Brunson (+135)
Jacare Souza fighting in Strikeforce.
Jacare Souza combating in Strikeforce. Photo by LowLight (YouTube) [CC License].
This is your traditional battle of styles. Ronaldo Souza (24-5, 17 admissions ) is among the very best jiu-jitsu professionals to ever step foot into a UFC Octagon while Derek Brunson (18-5, 10 KOs) loves to put people to sleep with his strong fists.
Initially both of these combatants met was back in 2012 under the aged Strikeforce bannerand it was really Souza who was able to put Brunson to sleep with a fast right hook, one of three career knockouts for the Brazilian.
Via GIPHY
Six decades after, Brunson, a former Division II All-American wrestler (and cheerleader!) , has an opportunity for revenge.
His opponent is among the most feared grapplers around the planet, and it has stopped 58-percent of his fights via submission. As he showed in the first matchup, he’s not too shabby at throwing leather either. He lands a decent 2.28 significant strikes every minute and has a striking accuracy of 44.1-percent.
Souza suffered a catastrophic loss to Robert Whittaker via head kick in his final fight (April 2017), but he has also won 10 of his last 12 and has never dropped back-to-back conflicts in his career. A win on Saturday would place Souza’s title back into middleweight title picture, and time is of the essence for its 38-year-old.
In 34, Derek Brunson’s own career clock is now getting late. He rebounded from back-to-back losses to Whittaker and Anderson Silva with KO wins over Dan Kelly (June 2017) and Lyoto Machida (October 2017), increasing up the middleweight positions in the procedure. Knocking men out is not anything new for its hard-hitting middleweight, who averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute with a striking accuracy of 32.1-percent. He’s won 61-percent of his struggles via KO and has produced knockouts in each of the last six successes. Interestingly, he has never been submitted in his professional career.
The contrasting styles make this a tremendously intriguing battle for MMA purists. Normally, it is wise to lean towards the high-level grappler over the energy puncher, but Souza’s age combined with his very last performance suggest a possible Brunson upset. Look for the American to utilize his speed, power, and five-inch achieve advantage (77??? vs 72???) to try to finish things early, while using his elite wrestling to keep the fight standing.
Right now, Brunson is listed at +135 on MyBookie.ag. It’s a good value bet worth taking now.

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