This weekend we have an early card Sunday morning (10:30am ET). I do like these early cards so that I will wake up and have a DraftKings sweat and go out and revel in the remainder of the afternoon when the struggles are over. This Sunday’s card will take place in Hamburg, Germany and there are a lot of fighters making their UFC debut. For this reason, I think we ought to have a big edge this week should we put in the job. Most casual players won’t be doing research on these titles they have not heard and will only be throwing in lineups seeking to get lucky and hit on a huge score. I’ll personally be chasing the big $15k top prize in the $8 GPP as well as the Qualifiers. Most of my investment will be in money games, mainly H2Hs, but I’ll be taking numerous shots at these huge prizes. Listed below are a Couple of plays I like this week as well as my fade of the week:
Money Game play of this week — Stack (Anthony Smith $8,700 AND Shogun Rua $7,500)
It is a tough card this Sunday and I believe we will see a lot of people making errors in cash games. Whenever I believe I can guarantee a total 100+ points in a struggle, I love to stack it in my cash games and lock those factors. I believe this fight will be a fun one and I highly doubt it belongs to the scorecards. I think we can observe multiple knockdowns as well that would help, but I think we easily get over 100+ points together with these two guys. Let us let everybody else make the mistakes and we can lock in a 100+ points and a triumph, and then we just need to locate another 3 wins we’re convinced in.
GPP drama of this week — Manny Bermudez ($9,200)
I believe that this matchup was set up to get Bermudez a triumph. He’s got a very slick submission game and if this fight goes to the ground I presume he can pick up progress points fast and locate a submission. Grant has had problems with entry defense in his career and even when he’s winning on the feet, he still shoots for takedowns every fight. I believe if Manny can’t get the takedown himself, then Grant will gradually go to it himself and it’ll cost him. I believe we could observe a 1st round submission here and that should easily get the 10x+ we’re looking for at his $9.2k price tag.
Underdog drama of this week — Shogun Rua ($7,500)
In case Shogun can win this battle he will easily repay this price tag. He’s got 100-point upside and using a 7.5k salary that will surely put him on the winning lineup if he can arrive. Anthony Smith has been knocked out more instances than Shogun and has fought considerably worse competition. I wouldn’t be surprised if Shogun is able to get a KO here against Smith, who’s carrying this fight on short notice. Shogun has noticeably slowed down in the past few years but I think he still has enough in the tank to pull off an upset victory here. I really do need exposure to both guys in GPPs, however I think you want some vulnerability to Rua if you’re making numerous lineups.
Fade of the week — Nick Hein ($8,500)
I have a number of fades this week and I am going with a bigger player pool in hopes of my own picks being correct and that I will hit the right combo. It is hard to choose one favorite fade this week but I shall select Nick Hein. I really do think Nick Hein will win this battle, and I think he will use takedowns to get the decision win here. Thus, you would think that sounds good on DraftKings since wrestling stands up things. But, he doesn’t chain together takedowns and he usually ends up with just 1 or 2 in his UFC wins. He does not have much finishing ability and that I don’t see him getting a submission. But I think we’ll see 2-3 takedowns him and here grinding his way to a Unanimous Decision victory just as we have seen from him in the past. Hein has 4 UFC wins and these are his DraftKings game logs for all those wins: 53 points, 58 points, 65 points, and 71 points. At $8.5k, I am not interested in getting any DK investment on Hein with those scores. That is why he is my fade of this week.
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