This weekend, we have a PPV card in Vegas. DraftKings has some strong contests for us to win a great deal of cash from this week and I can not wait to chase these big prizes. The most important GPP is a $15 buy and $50k goes to 1st place with a total of $250k being paid out. They also have a new Qualifier only tournament for $175,000. There’ll be 100 qualifiers for that competition and they will compete for a $50k first place price and $175k will probably be spread out between all 100 entries that qualify. I won my first chair into it a week and will attempt to get my 2nd and 3rd seats this week if at all possible. Those Qualifier only contests can be actual bankroll suckers therefore be careful chasing those too hard. I’ll likely stick to the very best GPP this week and then throw 100 or so entries at that $50k prize, then I will likely take a few shots at the Qualifier. I’ll also be posting H2Hs as well as picking up H2Hs throughout the week to get a fantastic quantity of drama into cash games.
With that said, let’s get to a few plays I enjoy this week Together with my fade of the week:
Cash Game play of the week — Jon Jones — $9,600
Jones is a lock for my money game lineup this week at his -800 gaming lineup. I will take that free square and move on. He must dominate this battle and he can finish it on the feet or the floor. I expect him to score over 100-points and I am perfectly fine with paying 9.6k for it. When I am making lineups, I would like to attempt and get at least 10x from every fighter. With Jones being 9.6k, I need at least 96 points . That’s the way I look at it. If this was a 3-round battle and I did not think Jones could find a finish then perhaps he just dents 80-85 DK points in a win, and at $9.6k I wouldn’t want that. However, this is a possible 5-round battle, and that I really do expect Jones to control, so that cost is fine with me. For GPPs, I believe that you can get from Jon Jones because he will be quite highly owned. If he is 50% owned by the field and he only scores 85-90 DK points, then that will kill half the field since that would not be enough points to place him on that $50k lineup.
GPP play of this week — Ben Askren — $9,000
If Ben Askren wins this battle it’ll be from his wrestling. He’s among the best wrestlers in MMA history and now he’s finally getting a chance in the UFC after dominating every organization he’s been in. He won’t wish to strike for extended against Robbie Lawler, therefore I expect him to take takedowns straight away and string wrestle till he gets them. When he gets high control there isn’t likely to be a lot Robbie can do on the ground and he must take a beating as long as it’s on the mat. On DraftKings, every takedown is 5 points compared to 0.5 points to get a significant strike. A guy like Askren can go out there and get 10 takedowns at 15-minutes and that’s what makes him a great play if he can come up with the victory.
Play of this week — Diego Sanchez — $7,100
This really isn’t the Diego Sanchez of older, but I believe he still has what it takes to conquer Mickey Gall. On the toes, the volume alone from Sanchez should win it there so long as he does not get pumped out. The chin of Diego is exactly what I worry about most these days, but Gall is not much of a striker and that I don’t see him getting knockout. I also don’t understand that Gall can get takedowns, and that I think Sanchez would be the more likely man to be on top if the struggle hits the ground. There is A entry the best chance at a win of Gall and Sanchez hasn’t been filed. We must have underdogs in our DK lineups and at $7.1k Diego enables us to cover up for all those men like Jon Jones or even Ben Askren. If he can grind a decision win here I presume he can get 10x that salary and if we could get a win against him in that inexpensive salary, I think we’ll be in line for that $50k win if we hit our other 5 spots.
Fade of the week — Anthony Smith ($6,600)
I might wind up using every fighter since I’m making so many lineups this week, but Anthony Smith is the man I need the very least of. I try to get a favorite for you guys as my fade of this week but I do not believe there are any must fade favorites this week. Rather, I’m going with the 1 fighter I don’t think stands a chance. I think a fluke KO is the only route to victory for Smith and that he really does not have the one punch/kick power it would take to pull that off. I would be shocked when Smith pulled off the upset this week and if I had been making 20 or less lineups, he’d be a simple fade.
Thank you for reading this and good luck this weekend! If you would like my full-card breakdown where I breakdown every struggle about the card and give my complete DraftKings evaluation, as well as all my pick predictions, you can find that for just $7.99 at this link below:
(Premium bets are available at that link as well. I am 58-37 for +177.62un (+$17,762) because May 19th on Premium Plays)
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